Shopify Stock: Headed to $1,250?

Though Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) is up about 200% over the past year, it’s notably down 16% from recent highs. Several analysts, however, think this pullback is offering a good entry point. Not only do they think shares will recover over the next 12 months, but they think the stock will blow past recent highs.

These analysts shared bullish views on the stock on Thursday, with one reiterating a $1,250 12-month price target for shares and another boosting his target from $1,150 to $1,250. Here’s a closer look at what has them so bullish.

Shopify e-commerce platform on a smartphone, laptop, and tablet.

Image source: Shopify.

Are these still the early days for Shopify?

Today, Shopify is raking in about $2.5 billion in trailing-12-month revenue. But Jefferies analyst Samad Samana thinks the e-commerce giant will see a fourfold increase in its revenue over the next five years, achieving an annualized top line of $10 billion. 

On this path to $10 billion, Samana believes that the boost Shopify has seen due to the pandemic will persist even when COVID-19 fades into the rearview mirror.

“While the pandemic is temporary, it has exacerbated structural issues for both online and offline merchants — the challenge of selling across multiple channels, the difficulty of logistics, the need to access capital, to name a few,” the analyst said in a note to investors. “Shopify solves for many of these pain points, and we expect more merchants to embrace Shopify’s platform.” 

In other words, the online-dependent environment businesses have been forced to operate in during the pandemic has highlighted the strengths of Shopify’s platform — a factor that may ultimately accelerate adoption of the company’s e-commerce solutions for the foreseeable future.

This bullish view has the analyst boosting his 12-month price target by $100 to $1,250, translating to 30% upside for the stock from here.

Meanwhile, Baird analyst Colin Sebastian reiterated an outperform rating and a $1,250 price target on Thursday, citing the company’s levers to drive strong revenue and profit margin growth. Key catalysts for the company include payments, small business loans, the Shopify fulfillment network, and newer monetizable services like online marketing, Sebastian noted.

Extraordinary momentum

The underlying strength in Shopify’s business is undeniable. Third-quarter revenue was $767.4 million, up 96% year over year. Over this same time frame, Shopify’s bottom line swung from a loss of $73 million to a profit of $191 million. 

A bar chart with an arrow highlighting a growth trend

Image source: Getty Images.

“Despite the heightened uncertainty surrounding the macro environment,” the company said in its third-quarter earnings release, “Shopify remains uniquely positioned to level the playing field for entrepreneurs during this period of rapid change in the retail landscape.”

The big question, of course, is whether Shopify can continue its high growth rates over the long haul. While it’s natural to expect the company’s growth to decelerate whenever the economy finally exits this pandemic, growth will likely remain robust for years to come — perhaps on the order of 30% to 40% growth rates. Grand View Research notably forecasts global e-commerce sales to grow at a rate of about 15% annually between 2020 and 2027. With the primary purpose of Shopify’s platform being to enable this shift to e-commerce, the company will likely see outsize growth compared to the global growth rate.

If Shopify can continue executing well on this growth opportunity, we’ll likely look back five years from now and view this as an attractive entry point into a stellar growth story.

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